Draft - Hockey Wiretap

The 2026 NHL Draft features no clear-cut top prospect, with scouts and front-office executives describing an unusually balanced group led by a strong pool of defensemen, according to a wide-ranging survey of league evaluators.

"There's no clear guy this year. There's a group," said one scout. "And I could see that group go in almost any order, although I think Gavin McKenna should be in the top two somewhere."

Multiple evaluators identified clusters of six to nine players they considered interchangeable at the top. One scouting director put it plainly: "There's no A's this year, just a bunch of B+'s."

McKenna, a winger long considered the presumptive first overall pick by the Toronto Maple Leafs, draws divided opinions. Scouts acknowledge his elite offensive tools and scoring history, but several question whether his game holds up in physical, playoff-style hockey.

"He's going to score a ton in the NHL," said one executive. "My concern is he's like Artemi Panarin. He'll get his accolades, but he'll also be on three to four teams and never make real noise in the playoffs."

Ivar Stenberg has emerged as a credible alternative at No. 1. The 5-foot-11 winger earns praise for his direct style and net-front presence, though some scouts warn his limited secondary game creates downside risk if his offensive production falls short.

"I could honestly see Stenberg get closer to 5 than to 1," one executive said. "He's not the same type of talent as McKenna."

With the top of the board unsettled, several scouts suggested the final decision may bypass scouting departments altogether.

"It doesn't matter what the scouts think when you win the lottery," one veteran evaluator said. "The GM can wipe their ass with your list."

The Toronto Maple Leafs have kept their plans for the first overall pick closely guarded, but most scouts and executives believe Gavin McKenna remains the most likely selection based on his exceptional ceiling and demonstrated ability to handle pressure situations.

McKenna's performance at Penn State this season reinforced his standing among evaluators. Whether facing loud buildings or stretches of negative scrutiny, scouts saw a prospect who drew energy from high-pressure environments rather than wilting under them. One front office executive was direct about the stakes involved.

"You better be absolutely sure if you're going to pass on McKenna," the executive said.

Sweden's Ivar Stenberg has complicated the conversation more than many anticipated. His profile climbed steadily throughout his draft year, with some evaluators pointing to his maturity, two-way reliability, and pro-ready game as factors that have forced a more thorough internal debate than originally expected.

Caleb Malhotra has also drawn considerable attention and may rank higher on several teams' draft boards than the public currently expects.

The consensus, however, still centers on McKenna. Passing on a generational talent and watching him thrive elsewhere remains the outcome every general manager is working to avoid.

The Toronto Maple Leafs' unlikely win in Tuesday's NHL Draft Lottery created an immediate and unresolved question of how the conditional first-round picks owed to the Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins will be distributed in 2027 and 2028.

The NHL has not yet provided a formal interpretation. Deputy commissioner Bill Daly acknowledged the complexity when asked prior to the lottery.

"I'm not prepared to answer that question is what I'd say. It's a complicated situation," Daly said. "It's a confusing situation, but we'll deal with it if we have to."

The issue stems from two trades completed roughly two hours apart on March 7, 2025, when Toronto acquired Scott Laughton from Philadelphia and Brandon Carlo from Boston. Both deals included conditional first-round pick language that the negotiating parties likely assumed would never become relevant, given the Leafs were leading the Atlantic Division at the time.

The Laughton deal sent Toronto's conditional 2027 first-rounder to Philadelphia, with a provision allowing the Leafs to retain that pick if it fell inside the top 10 and instead send their 2028 first-rounder. That option disappears if Toronto trades the 2028 pick before the 2027 draft.

The Carlo trade committed Toronto's 2026 first-rounder to Boston, with a clause stating that if the pick landed inside the top five, the Bruins would instead receive whichever of Toronto's 2027 or 2028 picks did not go to Philadelphia. Tuesday's lottery result placed that pick at No. 1, well inside the top five, triggering that condition.

The unresolved question is whether Boston automatically receives the 2028 pick now, or whether the Flyers' top-10 swap option in the Laughton deal still applies, potentially leaving Toronto with leverage over which team ultimately receives a prized selection.

Sources familiar with league-level discussions indicate the NHL is expected to award the 2027 pick to Philadelphia regardless of where it falls, with Boston receiving the 2028 selection. That determination has not yet been formally communicated to the clubs involved.

Once assigned, both picks will be free of conditions and could carry significant value depending on how quickly Toronto rebuilds under new general manager John Chayka.

The Toronto Maple Leafs won the 2026 NHL Draft lottery Tuesday, converting an 8.5 percent chance into the top selection. The San Jose Sharks made the night's biggest leap, jumping from ninth to second. The draft takes place in Buffalo on June 26 and 27.

Toronto is widely projected to select Penn State left wing Gavin McKenna, a franchise-altering talent who could play alongside Auston Matthews for years and potentially factor into Matthews' long-term future with the club.

San Jose is expected to take Swedish left wing Ivar Stenberg out of Frolunda with the second pick, with general manager Mike Grier signaling a best-player-available approach. 

Vancouver holds the third pick and faces a decision between OHL standouts Caleb Malhotra and Chase Reid. Malhotra, a 6-foot-2 two-way center from Brantford, has drawn Jonathan Toews comparisons from scouts after a strong late-season run.

Chicago at fourth and New York at fifth round out the top five, with the Rangers projected to take Reid, considered by many evaluators to be the top defenseman in the class.

2026 NHL Draft Mock: First 16 Picks

1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)
2. San Jose Sharks: Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frolunda (SHL)
3. Vancouver Canucks: Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)
4. Chicago Blackhawks: Carson Carels, LHD, Prince George (WHL)
5. New York Rangers: Chase Reid, RHD, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
6. Calgary Flames: Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, North Dakota (NCAA)
7. Seattle Kraken: Daxon Rudolph, RHD, Prince Albert (WHL)
8. Winnipeg Jets: Alberts Smits, LHD, Munich (DEL)
9. Florida Panthers: Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor (OHL)
10. Nashville Predators: Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
11. St. Louis Blues: Viggo Bjorck, C, Djurgarden (SHL)
12. New Jersey Devils: Wyatt Cullen, LW, U.S. NTDP (USHL)
13. New York Islanders: Ryan Lin, RHD, Vancouver (WHL)
14. Columbus Blue Jackets: Oscar Hemming, LW, Boston College (NCAA)
15. St. Louis Blues: Malte Gustafsson, LHD, HV71 (SHL)
16. Washington Capitals: Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Liiga)

The Toronto Maple Leafs won the 2026 NHL draft lottery Tuesday night, earning the right to select Penn State forward Gavin McKenna with the first overall pick at next month's draft in Buffalo, New York.

"When you get a first overall pick, it's a monumental opportunity," new Maple Leafs general manager John Chayka said on his second day on the job. "Long road ahead. Lots of work to do."

Toronto entered the lottery with an 8.5% chance of winning, the fifth-best odds among the 16 non-playoff teams. The win carries added significance given the circumstances. Had the pick fallen outside the top five, it would have transferred to the Boston Bruins as part of Toronto's trade for defenseman Brandon Carlo at last year's deadline.

The lottery result also triggered a separate dispute. Multiple reports Tuesday night indicated the Philadelphia Flyers believe they hold a claim on Toronto's 2027 first-round pick, acquired conditionally in the Scott Laughton trade. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told ESPN the situation is "complicated" and declined to issue an immediate ruling.

The San Jose Sharks won the second lottery draw despite entering with just a 5% chance. General manager Mike Grier said he was "shocked." San Jose has now selected in the top four in four consecutive drafts, previously adding Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini and Michael Misa.

The Vancouver Canucks, who held the league's worst record and an 18.5% chance of winning, will pick third.

Should Toronto select McKenna on June 26, it will mark the third time the franchise has drafted first overall, previously selecting Wendel Clark in 1985 and Auston Matthews in 2016, also in Buffalo.

The NHL announced Thursday it has reduced its penalty against the Ottawa Senators stemming from the botched 2022 Evgenii Dadonov trade, replacing a first-round pick forfeiture with a last-place selection at 32nd overall and a $1 million Canadian fine directed to the NHL Foundation Canada.

The original violation occurred when Ottawa traded Dadonov to the Vegas Golden Knights in July 2021 without disclosing a limited no-trade clause in his contract. Vegas subsequently dealt Dadonov to Anaheim in March 2022, unaware that the Ducks appeared on his 10-team no-trade list. The NHL voided the trade and in November 2023 ruled that Ottawa must forfeit a first-round pick in either 2024, 2025 or 2026.

The Senators used their 2024 pick on Carter Yakemchuk seventh overall and their 2025 selection on Logan Hensler 23rd overall, leaving their 2026 pick as the one subject to forfeiture before the league agreed to reduce the sanction.

Ottawa appealed for leniency, pointing to significant organizational changes since the violation. GM Pierre Dorion resigned following the initial ruling and was replaced by Steve Staios. New owner Michael Andlauer had just taken over the franchise when the penalty was announced.

"After due and thorough consideration, the League has decided that a modification of the original penalty is warranted," the NHL said in a statement.

The reduction mirrors a precedent set in 2014 when the NHL similarly replaced a first-round forfeiture for the New Jersey Devils, originally penalized for signing Ilya Kovalchuk to a contract deemed to circumvent the salary cap, with a last-place selection in that year's draft.

Every team finishing behind Ottawa in the draft order will move up one spot as a result of the revised penalty.

Penn State forward Gavin McKenna, the consensus first overall pick in this June's NHL draft, has been charged with felony aggravated assault and other counts, according to Pennsylvania Magisterial District Court documents. The 18-year-old Canadian faces serious legal consequences following an alleged altercation in State College last month.

McKenna was charged with first-degree felony aggravated assault, which is defined as attempting to cause serious bodily injury or causing injury with extreme indifference. Additional charges include misdemeanor simple assault and two summary counts of disorderly conduct for harassment and engaging in a fight.

The maximum penalty for first-degree felony aggravated assault in Pennsylvania is 20 years in prison and a $25,000 fine. McKenna was arraigned on the charges and released on $20,000 bail.

According to the State College Police Department, McKenna's charges stem from an altercation that occurred at approximately 8:45 p.m. on Jan. 31. Police said McKenna allegedly struck a 21-year-old male in the face, resulting in facial injuries that required surgery.

A preliminary hearing for the case is scheduled for Feb. 11 at the Centre County Courthouse in Bellefonte, Pennsylvania. The legal proceedings will determine whether the case advances to trial.

The alleged incidents happened on the same day that an NCAA outdoor hockey game at Penn State's Beaver Stadium drew 74,575 fans. The Nittany Lions lost to Michigan State 5-4 in overtime. McKenna recorded a goal and two assists in that contest.

McKenna has 32 points with 11 goals and 21 assists in 24 games with Penn State this season. NHL Central Scouting ranks him first among all North American skaters heading into the draft.

The NHL told ESPN it is aware of the charges against McKenna but offered no comment, as he is not currently a player in the league. Penn State issued a statement acknowledging awareness of the charges.

"We are aware that charges have been filed; however, as this is an ongoing legal matter, we will not have any further comment," the statement said.

McKenna stunned the hockey world last year by opting to leave Canadian junior hockey for Penn State's men's hockey program. In 2024, the NCAA ruled that Canadian junior players were now eligible to play on Division I teams, ending a decades-old policy.

McKenna was one of the first Canadian junior players to make the jump to the NCAA. His NIL money for attending Penn State is in the ballpark of $700,000, a source told ESPN at the time.

The charges cast uncertainty over McKenna's draft status and future in professional hockey. Teams evaluating him for June's draft will now consider these legal matters alongside his on-ice performance.

With highly touted prospect Gavin McKenna as the centerpiece, the NHL has selected the Buffalo Sabres to host its annual draft in June, according to multiple reports.

The formal announcement will be made in Buffalo on Monday night, before the Sabres play Florida. There will be a news conference that will include NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman.

Penn State freshman Gavin McKenna is no longer a certainty to be selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft after a challenging start to his college career. Seven NHL scouts indicated they would select a different player at No. 1, though ten scouts maintain McKenna remains the clear top prospect.

McKenna has struggled to translate his dominant junior hockey performance to the college level. The physicality of NCAA play has challenged him, particularly at even strength. While he remains electric with the puck and on the power play, his overall production has fallen short of expectations.

McKenna posted exceptional numbers in the WHL last season, drawing comparisons to Patrick Kane from his supporters. However, scouts have historically questioned his effort level and tendency toward perimeter play. The 5-foot-11 winger lacks elite speed and isn't particularly difficult to play against.

Some argue McKenna would have maintained his draft position by returning to junior hockey rather than competing in the NCAA. Instead, his decision to face higher-level competition has provided scouts with compelling data about how his game translates upward.

The lack of a clear alternative keeps McKenna atop many draft boards. North Dakota defenseman Keaton Verhoeff draws comparisons to Aaron Ekblad but lacks McKenna's dynamic offensive ability. Windsor's Ethan Belchetz offers a similar profile to 2022 top pick Juraj Slafkovsky as a skilled power forward.

Muskegon center Tynan Lawrence has shown promise as a two-way player with speed and skill. However, injuries have limited his exposure this fall. Sweden's Ivar Stenberg presents an electric smaller winger option, while Latvia's Alberts Smits has attracted attention as a big defenseman in Liiga.

McKenna still has opportunities to reclaim unanimous top-pick status. More than half his college season remains, plus the World Juniors where he's expected to lead Team Canada. What's clear is that the 2026 draft's top selection is now genuinely contested.

Penn State forward Gavin McKenna maintains his position as the top prospect in an updated 2026 NHL Draft ranking, with the 5-foot-11 left winger projected as a standard first-overall selection comparable to Jack Hughes in his draft year.

McKenna leads a draft class that currently appears average in overall depth, featuring a typical handful of elite prospects before a significant drop-off in talent. The junior and college seasons are well underway across all major development leagues.

Muskegon center Tynan Lawrence ranks second on the board, while North Dakota defenseman Keaton Verhoeff sits third. Both Verhoeff and Windsor left winger Ethan Belchetz are commonly viewed within NHL circles as potential challengers to McKenna as the season progresses.

McKenna earned a Tier 1 designation as an NHL star-level prospect. Lawrence and Verhoeff occupy Tier 2, classified as bubble NHL stars and top-of-the-lineup players.

Tier 3 consists of four prospects: Blainville-Boisbriand defenseman Xavier Villeneuve, Belchetz, Frolunda left winger Ivar Stenberg, and Prince George defenseman Carson Carels. All project as top-of-the-lineup players at the NHL level.

Tier 4 includes seven prospects ranging from Prince Albert defenseman Daxon Rudolph at eighth overall to Niagara left winger Ryan Roobroeck at 14th. These players project as bubble top-of-the-lineup or middle-of-the-lineup contributors.

Tier 5 encompasses 14 prospects from 15th-ranked Djurgarden center Viggo Bjorck through Spokane right winger Mathis Preston at 28th. All project as middle-of-the-lineup NHL players.

The board features prospects from nine different leagues, including NCAA, OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL, and various European circuits.

Full 2026 NHL Draft Rankings:

Tier 1 (NHL Star): Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State

Tier 2 (Bubble NHL Star/Top of Lineup): 2. Tynan Lawrence, C, Muskegon (USHL) 3. Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota

Tier 3 (Top of Lineup): 4. Xavier Villeneuve, D, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL) 5. Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor (OHL) 6. Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frolunda (Sweden) 7. Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL)

Tier 4 (Bubble Top/Middle of Lineup): 8. Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL) 9. Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Finland) 10. Alberts Smits, D, Jukurit (Finland) 11. Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL) 12. Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 13. Elton Hermansson, RW, Modo (Sweden-2) 14. Ryan Roobroeck, LW, Niagara (OHL)

Tier 5 (Middle of Lineup): 15. Viggo Bjorck, C, Djurgarden (Sweden) 16. Malte Gustafsson, D, HV71 Jr. (Sweden-Jr.) 17. William Hakansson, D, Lulea (Sweden) 18. Brooks Rogowski, C, Oshawa (OHL) 19. Ryan Lin, D, Vancouver (WHL) 20. Juho Piiparinen, D, Tappara (Finland) 21. JP Hurlbert, LW, Kamloops (WHL) 22. Adam Novotny, LW, Peterborough (OHL) 23. Oscar Hemming, LW, K-Espoo (Finland) 24. Egor Shilov, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL) 25. Ilia Morozov, C, Miami (NCAA) 26. Marcus Nordmark, LW, Djurgarden Jr. (Sweden-Jr.) 27. Lars Steiner, RW, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL) 28. Mathis Preston, RW, Spokane (WHL)