For as much credit as Brian Burke rightfully deserves for his trading history as general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs, he deserves just as much scrutiny for the contracts he signs.
The five-year $27.5M extension for Mikhail Grabovski is no different.
Grabovski’s $5.5M cap hit makes him the Leafs’ highest paid forward, higher than Phil Kessel.
Some of Burke’s player contracts look like this: Colby Armstrong (68 games in almost two full seasons, 24 points), $3M cap hit; Tim Connolly (53 games, 28 points) for $4.75M per year for two years; Mike Komisarek (often a healthy scratch this year, and the team’s seventh-best defenseman) for $4.5M per year through 2013-14. He has also given out some sort of No-Trade Clause to Connolly, Komisarek, Luke Schenn, John-Michael Liles and Phil Kessel. Grabovski is also rumored to be received a modified NTC.
This isn’t a knock on Grabovski; he is a very good second-line center, and kudos to him and his agent for getting Burke to pay him like a first-liner. But that is the problem in a nutshell, paying the player above his value.
This is Grabovski’s fourth season on the Leafs, and by all intents and purposes has grown in his maturity level, work ethic, and consistency. Last season he set career-highs across the board with 29-29-58, +14, 19:22 in average ice time. He plays smart defensively, and has above average speed and stick handling ability. This season he has 20-25-45, +7 in 59 games, and has stepped in as an alternate captain on occasion. It appears that he is bound to be in the 55-60 point range as his maximum.
The reason the 28-year-old will always be a second-line center is his faceoffs; despite receiving increased ice time and responsibilities the last two seasons, he wins less than 50% of his draws.
Comparable players for Grabovski’s role and skill-set also show that he is being paid too much. Tomas Plekanec was 28-years-old when he signed for $5M per season, but has posted seasons of 69 and 70 points, higher than Grabovski’s career-best. David Krejci also has two seasons with 60+ points, and signed for $5.25M per year, but he is only 25-years-old and has higher upside. Derek Roy, a four-time 60-point player, makes $4M per season. James Neal, a 30-goal scorer and All-Star just signed a long-term extension for $5M per season. Ryan Kesler, a Selke winner and 40-goal scorer signed a long-term deal for $5M per season as well.
No matter which way you cut it, Grabovski is a good second-line center, but he is being overpaid by about $1M per season, which can be significant in the salary cap world.
Grade for Grabovski: A+
Grade for Toronto: C+
Nick is RealGM’s NHL Feature Writer. You can reach him by email nick.obergan@realgm.com or on twitter @NickObergan
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