With the regular season closing Sunday, the race for the final Western playoff spots is as 'Catholic schoolgirl tight' as it has ever been. It could even go down to the final day, like in 1987-1988 when the Devils went 9-0-1 over their last ten games to make the playoffs in their final game.
With their insanely huge win Wednesday night over the Detroit Red Wings, the Hawks kept this a four-team race by the thinnest of margins. The stellar play of Nikolai Khabibulin since returning from injury has been the most important factor keeping the Hawks body temperature above zero.
Speaking of hot goalies, the Nashville Predators have one whose mercury levels have long since shattered the thermometers in the Music City in Dan Ellis. Before a rough Tuesday outing, he had only allowed two goals over four starts.
On the flip side of the coin, the Canadian teams from near the Pacific Ocean have been stumbling to the finish line, dropping precipitously in the standings along the way. The Canucks can blame injuries, and I guess Flames players can blame enduring an entire season under Mike Keenan.
If the teams can regroup, each has ample opportunity to make the playoffs, but that is a strangely big if right now.
Drawing on the wisdom of the ancient mystics, I have peered into the future and now return willing to share my wisdom with all who seek truth. I will go through each team's remaining schedule to reveal exactly what will happen over the next few days, where hockey arenas will see the most action since Jean Claude Van Damme's epic masterwor: Sudden Death.
As a teaser before I begin, I will reveal another, far more rudimentary prognosticator's thoughts on the playoff chances of the teams in question.
Team/Playoff Chance %
Chicago: 7.7%
Vancouver: 28.1%
Nashville: 66.8%
Calgary: 97.4%
As a final totally unnecessary disclaimer, I will reveal I am from Winnetka, IL; which, despite technically being in Chicago-land, is really much further away than the twenty-five minute drive to downtown would have you believe.
Chicago Blackhawks | 10th in West | 86 Points
Game 81 vs. Nashville
Season Series
11/04/07 | Loss: 2-5
11/15/07 | Loss: 4-5 OT
12/19/07 | Win: 5-2
12/26/07 | Win: 5-2
01/13/08 | Win: 3-2 SO
02/14/08 | Win: 6-1
03/22/08 | Loss: 1-2 SO
Overall | 4-1-2
As is to be expected from two teams that are only separated by three points in the standings, it has been a relatively even matchup for the Hawks with the Predators this season.
With David Legwand sidelined thanks to a bone bruise, the Preds have been playing only average hockey recently, going 5-4-1 in their last tne games. It is a boon for the Hawks to be playing the game at home, where they are six games over .500, while the Preds are an average road team, going 18-17-5 on the year away from the Sommet Center.
Given everything else is so even, and Nashville will be playing the second night of a back to back, while the Hawks will be well rested, I feel even if I were not biased, I would have to say ...
PREDICTED WINNER: Chicago
04/06/08 | Road Game 82 vs. Detroit
Season Series
10/04/07 | Home Win: 4-3 SO
10/12/07 | Road Win: 3-2
11/11/07 | Home Win: 3-2
11/17/07 | Road Win: 5-3
01/06/08 | Home Loss: 1-3
03/11/08 | Road Loss: 1-3
04/02/08 | Home Win: 6-2
Overall | 5-2-0
The best Midwestern rivalry has been strangely dominated by Chicago this year, despite the fact the Wings are on their way to yet another President's trophy.
Winning Wednesday night kept Chicago alive, but the odds are severely stacked against the Hawks still having a playoff pulse by Sunday. Sadly, given how good San Jose's been this season, the Wings will stay probably have the top spot in the conference on the line for the game.
If that was already locked up, they would most likely sit most of their veterans to get them some rest and keep them healthy for the only season that matters. That said, either way, if the Hawks still have a chance for the postseason, they will definitely have more motivation.
Thus once again, from an objective perspective I cannot possibly hope to obtain, it only makes sense to say ...
PREDICTED WINNER: Chicago
Vancouver Canucks | 9th in West | 88 Points
04/03/08 | Game 81 | Home vs. Edmonton
Season Series
10/12/07 | Road Win: 5-2
10/13/07 | Home Win: 4-1
11/14/07 | Home Loss: 0-1 SO
11/20/07 | Road Loss: 4-5 SO
12/15/07 | Road Loss: 1-2 SO
02/16/08 | Home Win: 4-2
03/20/08 | Road Win: 4-1
Overall | 4-0-3
The Oilers may have recently been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but all that means, the most important thing they can now is make sure they are not the only team in the Pacific Northwest hitting the links early.
It will be a playoff atmosphere Thursday night in Vancouver, and the Canucks need to play better than they have been over their past ten (4-6-0) to win this one.
That said, it is good for them to be playing a team they have not lost too all season. Plus, Edmonton's Mathieu Garon is out, and Dwayne Roloson has been playing horribly of late. Overall, though I would still have to say (if for no better reason than to up the drama) ...
PREDICTED WINNER: Edmonton
04/05/08 | Game 82 | Home vs. Calgary
Season Series
10/06/07 | Road Win: 4-3 OT
11/08/07 | Road Win: 3-2
11/18/07 | Home Win: 4-1
12/27/07 | Home Win: 5-3
12/31/07 | Road Loss: 1-2
03/25/08 | Road Loss: 2-3
03/30/08 | Home Win: 6-2
Overall | 5-2-0
The Canucks are lucky in the sense, they are the only team in the thick of this race with both their remaining games at home.
They have dominated the Flames so far this season, but the majority of those wins came with a fully healthy squad, and Luongo playing like something besides a sieve.
Keeping that in mind, however, it also true the Flames may be the only other once-bound playoff team tanking harder than they are, so this matchup looks to be quite tight, especially considering how much both will have riding on the line.
Keeping all of that in mind, I will have to give the slightest of edgest to the home team and say ...
PREDICTED WINNER: Vancouver
Nashville Predators | 8th in West | 89 Points
04/03/08 | Game 81 | Home vs. St. Louis
Season Series
10/10/07 | Road Loss: 1-4
11/17/07 | Home Loss: 2-3 SO
11/19/07 | Road Loss: 1-2
01/19/08 | Road Win: 5-2
01/21/08 | Home Win: 6-3
02/16/08 | Home Win: 2-1 OT
04/01/08 | Home Win: 4-3 OT
Overall | 4-3-0
Facing off against the worst opponent any team will see in their last two games, the Predators are anything but a lock to win. Clearly they are the more talented team, especially given the recent emergence of Dan Ellis to just around top tier goaltender, but as you can see above the season series between these squads has been nearly even.
In games decided in regulation they are 2-2, while the Predators have won one more game that has taken extra time. The Blues have nothing to play for here, save the pride of veterans Paul Kariya and Keith Tkachuk.
Thus, I do not feel it is by any means a stretch or insult to a logical, intellectual mind to suggest the outcome may be ...
PREDICTED WINNER: St. Louis by shootout
04/03/08 | Game 82 | Road vs. Chicago
See Chicago above.
Calgary Flames | 7th in West | 92 Points
04/03/08 | Game 81 | Road vs. Minnesota
Season Series
10/24/07 | Home Win 5-3
11/03/07 | Road Loss 1-4
11/13/07 | Home Win 3-2
01/16/08 | Road Win 3-2 SO
01/22/08 | Home Win 2-1
02/24/08 | Road Win 2-1
03/22/08 | Home Win 5-4
Overall | 6-1-0
The Flames had a rough past 11 games for a team with a tenuous hold on a playoff spot, going 5-6-0. Do not blame former Vezina winner Mikka Kiprusoff, though, he's been brilliant. Rather, it has been a lack of offensive production, including being shut out twice that has hurt.
Nevertheless, the Flames have scorched the division leading Wild this season, beating them six out of their seven head to head matchups. I do not exactly know why this has occurred, as the Wild are not a bad or even mediocre team, but the record is what it is.
Accounting for that and the fact they have their playoff lives to play for as opposed to just a higher seed, I think the only reasonable expectation is ...
PREDICTED WINNER: Calgary
04/05/08 | Game 82 | Road vs. Vancouver
See Vancouver above.
PREDICTED FINAL POINT TOTALS
Calgary: 94
Nashville: 90
Vancouver: 90
Chicago: 90
So, according to my foolproof, psychic approved forecasting methods, the Flames will take the seventh seed, and ... what's this? A three-way tie? Do all three tames make it?
Thankfully, the NHL [4] has considered this potential eventuality and put tie breaking rules in place. Given all the teams have played 82 games, the next tiebreaker is,
"2. The greater number of games won."
And, looking over the numbers, that gives the edge, by the thinnest of margins, to the Chicago Blackhawks with 41 wins. They made the most of their 7.7% chance. It may be unlikely, but there it is.
All I will say in defense of my prediction, is thank God their shot was not one in a million.
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