| Nick Obergan. 9th May, 2011 - 2:40 pm
 After another early playoff exit, perhaps no team in the NHL faces more offseason questions that come without any answers than the Washington Capitals, who were swept handily by the Tampa Bay Lightning. This was the fourth straight season that Washington was eliminated before the Conference Finals, and all four times were by teams that were lower seeds than them.
While coach Bruce Boudreau received a vote of confidence after their latest exit from GM George McPhee, don’t expect the rumblings to cease with regards to his place as Washington’s coach next season. Capitals’ owner Ted Leonsis is a very hands-on type, and it wouldn’t be beyond him to take an axe to McPhee himself and thus put Boudreau’s job status in jeopardy.
If I was Leonsis, I would stand pat once again and let both men do their jobs, as both are successful at their craft and there aren’t any glaring options that are better on the open market. Personally, I find Boudreau to be a fantastic coach, as he has guided the Caps to four consecutive division titles in his only four seasons behind the bench. Should he be faulted because a few of his top players have consistently faltered come playoff time? Yes and no, but more no than yes.
It is McPhee who has to be under the gun this offseason, and if Leonsis doesn’t axe him, McPhee should be looking at making at least two big trades. This would rid the Caps of a couple of playoff disappointments, as well as position themselves better for (likely) losing Brooks Laich in unrestricted free agency.
The first player on the chopping block should be winger Alexander Semin. In the last two regular seasons, Semin has 68 goals in 138 games. But in the playoffs, where it matters most, Semin has recorded just four goals and 10 points in 16 games over the last two seasons. Those four goals were all this offseason, but only one was registered in the second round and it was in the first game. In the four games vs. Tampa Bay, the sniper registered a mere eight shots on net, simply unacceptable.
Contract-wise, Semin signed an extension during the season that locks him up next season for $6.7M, a slight raise on the $6M he earned this season, and a number weighted more toward his 40-goal season in 2009-10 than this season. Semin should draw suitors because of there is no long-term commitment, and teams wouldn’t have to fear the unknown of the next CBA. McPhee could potentially land two players for the same dollar amount, whether two forwards or a forward and a defenseman. The key ingredients the Caps need in return are heart and will, two things Semin has yet to show.
Another player the Caps could dangle on the open market is defenseman Mike Green. Yes, Green is a two-time Norris Trophy finalist, but those are solely based on his offensive exploits from the back-end. The two seasons he was nominated (2009, 2010) saw him pile up 50 goals and 149 points in 143 games. His numbers were particularly gaudy in 2008-09 when he had 31-42-73 in only 68 games.
This season was an injury plagued one that saw him register only 24 points in 49 games, but he also tried to buy into the new defensive style that the Caps were employing. In the playoffs he had 6 points in 8 games, which is good, but in last year’s first round collapse against Montreal he had just three assists in seven games. Green is also signed through next season, at $5.25M, and McPhee could use him to dangle a defenseman better suited for a defensive style and improve the team’s depth.
Perhaps options to start targeting are Jay Bouwmeester or Robyn Regehr in Calgary. If Green is dealt for a forward or two, perhaps they could look at the Avs for a trade, who are likely to make Paul Stastny and John-Michael Liles available. Maybe Philadelphia would make a good trade partner, considering both teams vastly underperformed in the postseason (and the Flyers really need a goalie).
Speaking of the Avs, they have a great need for a young starting goalie, and I think McPhee’s greatest asset on the trade market would be goaltender Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov is a restricted free agent who won’t cost an arm and a leg, and is only 23-years-old. In three seasons as a part-time starter, Varlamov has posted a 30-11-5 record with four shutouts and a great goals against average (2.39) and save percentage (.917). In two playoff runs with the Caps, Varlamov’s numbers are nearly identical at 2.49 and .915 respectively; he could start on almost any team for the next ten seasons.
Why Varlamov? Michal Neuvirth had a fantastic rookie season and looks like the real deal, and behind him Braden Holtby was absolutely stellar while filling in during injuries. The 21-year-old Holtby played in 14 games this season and went 10-2-2 with a 1.79GAA, a .934SV% and two shutouts. On top of being younger, Holtby is signed for very cheap for two more seasons before he reaches restricted free agency.
With a couple of their veterans (Jason Arnott, Marco Sturm, Scott Hannan) set to be free agents, and only Varlamov and defenseman Karl Alzner " who they will surely lock up " being restricted free agents, the Caps have some roster spots available and if they can fill them by one-for-two trades, they would do themselves a big favour.
Salary wise, before any RFA signings, Washington will have around $10M available in the offseason (they have just over $50M in committed salary, and we don’t yet know next year’s salary cap). They won’t have salary room to make any big free agent splashes to improve their club, so they will have to focus on locking up their own free agents, and improving themselves by trades. And with these trades, they need to change the makeup of their roster, a roster that has lacked the traits of heart and will during the postseason.
Nick is RealGM’s NHL Feature Writer. You can reach him by email nick.obergan@realgm.com or on twitter @NickObergan
|
